ECOS Decision Intelligence — every decision carries Insight · Risk · Recommendation · Financial impact. The modules are data sources; the copilot decides above them.
Decisions in scope
Total exposure
Recoverable
Portfolio insight
Top 5 portfolio signal(s) across 20 analysis(es): 1. [tender] Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC — 72% win probability on Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC against a 33/100 risk score, with an expected 11% margin. 2. [tender] DN1 Bypass — Bistrița (Design & Build) — 58% win probability on DN1 Bypass — Bistrița (Design & Build) against a 41/100 risk score, with an expected 8.5% margin. 3. [contract] Cluj Metro M1 Extension — Design & Build Contract — Cluj Metro M1 Extension — Design & Build Contract carries 3 mapped risk(s) (3 high/critical), 2 penalty warning(s) and 2 claim opportunit(ies) worth ~6,950,000 EUR. 4. [contract] A4 Highway Section 3 — Construction Contract — A4 Highway Section 3 — Construction Contract carries 3 mapped risk(s) (2 high/critical), 2 penalty warning(s) and 2 claim opportunit(ies) worth ~3,820,000 EUR. 5. [tender] Oncology Centre — Iași (Build) — 47% win probability on Oncology Centre — Iași (Build) against a 55/100 risk score, with an expected 10% margin.
Risk posture
Aggregate portfolio RAG is RED: ~304,708,000 EUR of total exposure against ~48,448,270 EUR recoverable across 20 signal(s).
Act in this order
Act on the top ranked decisions in order: 1. Bid Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC. Strong fit: 72% win probability against 3 competitors, risk score 33/100 is acceptable, and the recommended 11% margin protects return. Proceed. 2. Bid DN1 Bypass — Bistrița (Design & Build). Strong fit: 58% win probability against 4 competitors, risk score 41/100 is acceptable, and the recommended 8.5% margin protects return. Proceed. 3. Pursue the surfaced claim opportunities (~6,950,000 EUR) and mitigate the high/critical risks before the next notice deadline. 4. Pursue the surfaced claim opportunities (~3,820,000 EUR) and mitigate the high/critical risks before the next notice deadline. 5. Bid conditionally on Oncology Centre — Iași (Build). Marginal: 47% win probability with risk score 55/100. Bid only if key risks (programme, ground, escalation) are de-risked and 10% margin holds.
Ranked by severity × exposure — the decisions with the most at stake, first.
Insight
72% win probability on Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC against a 33/100 risk score, with an expected 11% margin.
Risk
~75,600,000 EUR of delivery exposure is committed by bidding; a 33/100 risk score can erode the 11% margin.
Recommendation
Bid Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC. Strong fit: 72% win probability against 3 competitors, risk score 33/100 is acceptable, and the recommended 11% margin protects return. Proceed.
Exposure at risk
€75,600,000
Recoverable
€6,177,600
Bidding commits ~75,600,000 EUR of delivery exposure; the probability-weighted margin upside is ~6,177,600 EUR (11% on 78,000,000 EUR × 72% win).
Insight
58% win probability on DN1 Bypass — Bistrița (Design & Build) against a 41/100 risk score, with an expected 8.5% margin.
Risk
~62,900,000 EUR of delivery exposure is committed by bidding; a 41/100 risk score can erode the 8.5% margin.
Recommendation
Bid DN1 Bypass — Bistrița (Design & Build). Strong fit: 58% win probability against 4 competitors, risk score 41/100 is acceptable, and the recommended 8.5% margin protects return. Proceed.
Exposure at risk
€62,900,000
Recoverable
€3,179,850
Bidding commits ~62,900,000 EUR of delivery exposure; the probability-weighted margin upside is ~3,179,850 EUR (8.5% on 64,500,000 EUR × 58% win).
Insight
Cluj Metro M1 Extension — Design & Build Contract carries 3 mapped risk(s) (3 high/critical), 2 penalty warning(s) and 2 claim opportunit(ies) worth ~6,950,000 EUR.
Risk
~22,020,000 EUR of contractual downside is exposed; 1 obligation deadline(s) are already overdue.
Recommendation
Pursue the surfaced claim opportunities (~6,950,000 EUR) and mitigate the high/critical risks before the next notice deadline.
Exposure at risk
€22,020,000
Recoverable
€6,950,000
Quantified downside ~22,020,000 EUR (risk map + delay-damages cap); ~6,950,000 EUR is recoverable through the surfaced claim opportunities if pursued in time.
Insight
A4 Highway Section 3 — Construction Contract carries 3 mapped risk(s) (2 high/critical), 2 penalty warning(s) and 2 claim opportunit(ies) worth ~3,820,000 EUR.
Risk
~21,490,000 EUR of contractual downside is exposed; 1 obligation deadline(s) are already overdue.
Recommendation
Pursue the surfaced claim opportunities (~3,820,000 EUR) and mitigate the high/critical risks before the next notice deadline.
Exposure at risk
€21,490,000
Recoverable
€3,820,000
Quantified downside ~21,490,000 EUR (risk map + delay-damages cap); ~3,820,000 EUR is recoverable through the surfaced claim opportunities if pursued in time.
Insight
47% win probability on Oncology Centre — Iași (Build) against a 55/100 risk score, with an expected 10% margin.
Risk
~40,100,000 EUR of delivery exposure is committed by bidding; a 55/100 risk score can erode the 10% margin.
Recommendation
Bid conditionally on Oncology Centre — Iași (Build). Marginal: 47% win probability with risk score 55/100. Bid only if key risks (programme, ground, escalation) are de-risked and 10% margin holds.
Exposure at risk
€40,100,000
Recoverable
€1,936,400
Bidding commits ~40,100,000 EUR of delivery exposure; the probability-weighted margin upside is ~1,936,400 EUR (10% on 41,200,000 EUR × 47% win).
Each advisor wraps one module and surfaces its single highest-stakes decision in the universal contract.
Bid / no-bid posture on the highest-stakes pursuit
Insight
72% win probability on Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC against a 33/100 risk score, with an expected 11% margin.
Risk
~75,600,000 EUR of delivery exposure is committed by bidding; a 33/100 risk score can erode the 11% margin.
Recommendation
Bid Galați Solar Park — 120 MWp EPC. Strong fit: 72% win probability against 3 competitors, risk score 33/100 is acceptable, and the recommended 11% margin protects return. Proceed.
Exposure at risk
€75,600,000
Recoverable
€6,177,600
Bidding commits ~75,600,000 EUR of delivery exposure; the probability-weighted margin upside is ~6,177,600 EUR (11% on 78,000,000 EUR × 72% win).
FIDIC risk, penalties & entitlement on the live book
Insight
Cluj Metro M1 Extension — Design & Build Contract carries 3 mapped risk(s) (3 high/critical), 2 penalty warning(s) and 2 claim opportunit(ies) worth ~6,950,000 EUR.
Risk
~22,020,000 EUR of contractual downside is exposed; 1 obligation deadline(s) are already overdue.
Recommendation
Pursue the surfaced claim opportunities (~6,950,000 EUR) and mitigate the high/critical risks before the next notice deadline.
Exposure at risk
€22,020,000
Recoverable
€6,950,000
Quantified downside ~22,020,000 EUR (risk map + delay-damages cap); ~6,950,000 EUR is recoverable through the surfaced claim opportunities if pursued in time.
The single decisive site action for today
Insight
Delay risk is RED on Cluj Metro Line M1 — Eastern Extension with 1 priorit(ies), 1 resource conflict(s) and 2 critical-path alert(s).
Risk
~405,000 EUR of delay-damages exposure from the current programme slip.
Recommendation
Resolve high-severity delay issue (IS-1): TBM standby 6.5h — cutter inspection in mixed-face ground beyond GBR baseline. — High severity and claim-relevant — protects programme and entitlement.
Exposure at risk
€405,000
Recoverable
€243,000
~81d of programme slip is ~405,000 EUR of delay-damages exposure; acting on the priorities now recovers ~243,000 EUR of it.
Notices to serve before the entitlement time-bars lapse
Insight
3 claim/variation event(s) detected on Cluj Metro Line M1 — Eastern Extension worth ~7,200,000 EUR of entitlement.
Risk
2 event(s) carry a notice time-bar — missed notices forfeit the entitlement.
Recommendation
Serve notices and build particulars for the detected events — ~7,200,000 EUR is recoverable if pursued in time.
Exposure at risk
€7,200,000
Recoverable
€7,200,000
~7,200,000 EUR of detected entitlement across 3 event(s) — recoverable if notices are served in time.
DEMO DATA — all figures are synthetic and clearly marked as sample data for ERTHA Construction (DEMO). The copilot runs in demo mode and wraps the existing modules without modifying them. No real-world benchmarks, clients, or statistics are presented as fact.